Monte Carlo Financial Planning

A plan built on an average annual return quietly assumes the average shows up on schedule, and the order in which good and bad years arrive is exactly what decides whether the money lasts. This draws the return path thousands of times from the real distribution of each asset, with contributions and withdrawals modeled year by year.

• Projections built on empirical distributions instead of one flat expected return
• Contributions, withdrawals and horizon modeled year by year, in your own numbers
• Probability of reaching the target, with the range of outcomes around it and the worst cases named